A week before Election Day, more than 64 million Americans have already voted – and about half of them are in the dozen competitive states that will ultimately decide who wins the Electoral College.
Perhaps even more importantly, early votes on these battlefields represent more than half of the total votes of these states in 2016. Nationally, voters have already cast about 46% of the total votes counted. in 2016, according to the United States Elections Project.
Comparison of votes cast so far with the total participation rate in 2016
55% of total votes 2016
Total Votes 2016
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, many states have changed voting rules, allowing millions of people to vote by post for the first time, and many more voted in person early to avoid an early voter crush on the day. polling day. Voters’ enthusiasm for and against President Trump also fueled a record early turnout across the country.
Democrats seem much more eager to vote early. In the five battlefield states that report party registration, nearly two million more registered Democrats have voted than Republicans so far.
In Pennsylvania – a state Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2016 – more than three times as many Democrats voted as Republicans. The party breakup is more uniform in Florida and North Carolina.
The first votes in populous Texas, which leans Republican but is considered competitive this year due to its growing population of people of color, have already exceeded 80% of the state’s total turnout in 2016. And the votes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina accounted for over 60% of the total votes cast in those states four years ago.
Probably Biden wins
Voters are also found in large numbers in states that are more likely to favor Joseph R. Biden Jr. These states together account for over a third of the votes cast so far and 43% of the total 2016 votes in those states. States. While early voting is only just beginning in some states, like New York, those numbers are likely to rise.
Probably Trump wins
Early voting has been less extensive in states that are more likely to favor Mr. Trump. These states tend to be less populous than most Democratic and battlefield-oriented states, so it‘s no surprise that they account for a smaller share of total early votes. But their first votes are also lower as a percentage of the number of people who voted four years ago.
Mr. Trump, who denounced the postal vote, is counting on a “Red wave” in-person voting on Nov. 3 to overcome what appears to be an early voting advantage for Democrats.