As Democrats work their way into the final hours of the White House race, one possibility is high on the list of reasons President Trump could win.
It is his intensive efforts – according to some successful accounts – to identify potential supporters who did not attend in 2016 and have them registered and go to the polls (or letterboxes). Mr. Trump’s campaign has invested heavily in finding people who match the demographics of his supporters – especially white males without a college degree – and comparing them to public records to determine who did not vote in 2016.
For Democrats, this was of particular concern in Pennsylvania, which has a sizable cohort of such voters, and where Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 44,292 votes, or less than a percentage point. Mr. Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic presidential candidate, visited statewide over the weekend, reinforcing how critical he has become for the outcome of this election.
It is not known whether this strategy worked, as Mr Biden also attracted new voters. A New York Times / Siena College poll released on Sunday suggests that in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona, there was an influx of people who voted in 2016 and they generally vote for Mr Biden.
Among eligible Pennsylvania voters who did not surrender in 2016, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 12 points. His margin among those voters is 19 points in Wisconsin, 17 points in Florida and 7 points in Arizona.
The poll also shows Mr Biden leading in four of the most crucial transitional states, leaving him in a strong position ahead of election day. It leads Florida by three points, Arizona and Pennsylvania by six and Wisconsin by 11.
Mr. Trump, on the other hand, has had modest success in his efforts to attract Hispanic support across the country, and the poll found that 33% of Latino respondents in Florida supported him compared to Mr. Biden, with 9% undecided. In 2016, a survey of voters leaving the polling stations found that 31% of Hispanic voters preferred Mr. Trump over Ms. Clinton.