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Hello. There is no presidential winner yet. Biden appears to be in a better position than Trump, and Republicans appear to be in a better position to control the Senate.
Joe Biden is now the frontrunner to win the presidency, and Republicans are favored to retain control of the Senate – but both results are far from certain. And Democrats failed to achieve the resounding victory that pre-election polls had hinted they could.
Here’s where we are after an upside-down election night, in which the situation changed several times:
The outcome is unclear in six swing states – Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and all are still counting the votes. We could have a final count of the votes today, while others could take a few days.
“Biden is the favorite, albeit narrowly, pretty much everywhere,” Nate Cohn of The Times tweeted, listing five of the above six states (all except North Carolina). Sean trende of RealClearPolitics agreed, “Would probably rather be Biden than Trump.”
The pending ballots are mostly mail-in ballots, which are likely to favor Biden as more Democrats than Republicans voted earlier this year. He leads the current vote count in Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in the other four. “I don’t think people have fully internalized how democratic these mail and mail ballots will be in MI / PA / WI,” Nate wrote.
If Biden maintains his lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, he would only need to win one of three states – Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania – to get the majority of the electoral votes (and could still lose North Carolina. North).
Ballots appear to be the slowest in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania officials said they expected all votes to be counted by Friday.
Even with Biden’s apparent advantages at this point, the country has never seen an election with such a heavy vote by mail, creating significant uncertainty. It‘s entirely possible that Trump will keep his lead in the states he currently leads and win the election.
The situation in the Senate is different – and more favorable to Republicans. They appear to be in a good position to retain control of the Senate, which would give them a veto over almost all of President Biden’s legislative projects.
Democrats were expected to win at least five of 14 Senate races and have so far won just two. Six races remain pending. The only incumbent Republicans to lose are Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado.
Biden, speaking to supporters after midnight, urged patience. “We think we are on the right track to win this election,” he said. “We’re going to have to be patient until the hard work of counting the votes is done. And it‘s not over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.
Trump falsely declared himself the winner at around 2:30 a.m. EST. He said he would ask the Supreme Court to stop counting ballots in states he led, while urging more counting in states where he was late. He alleged “fraud” (for which there is no proof) and he called the elections “embarrassment for the country”.
Many state polls were in error and underestimated support for Republicans – again. A big question in the coming days will be why: Haven’t the polls yet managed to include enough white working-class voters, as they did in 2016? Or was it something else?
Democrats struggled to match their 2016 margins among Hispanic voters. We covered this topic in detail in this newsletter, and it hurt Biden, especially in Florida and Texas.
You can visit The Times all day for the latest coverage.
Further down, you’ll find information on some of this year’s other races – including more details on the Senate, as well as the latest state voting initiatives. But first, I want to give you a selection of comments on the national stage.
“The current vote count is…. exactly what we knew and reported would happen. This is a legitimate count of ballots that were returned before or on polling day. “- Scott Detrow, NPR
“This is an extremely flammable situation and the president has just cast a match,” Chris Wallace told Fox News after Trump’s remarks. “He did not win these states.”
“Donald Trump called it ‘fraud’ to continue counting the votes. It does not look like a democracy. “- Olivia nuzzi, New York Magazine
“What Trump has done tonight is shocking, even though he’s been telegraphing this for some time. He has made his supporters believe that any outcome that does not win him is a fraud. – Rosie Gray, BuzzFeed News
“Trump can indeed win. But he certainly hasn’t done it yet. And he can’t say your vote shouldn’t be counted. “- HE Cupp, CNN
“Every serious analysis I’ve read of this election said that it would be long and interminable, and that Trump would try to steal the election by trying to rule out Biden’s late votes. And now that it’s happening… everyone seems shocked. – Anne Applebaum, Atlantic
“It’s amazing how competitive Trump is with over 230,000 deaths from covid and kids locked in cages and everything in between. Even if Biden wins, he will have to rule in a Trump country. This is America. “- Gabriel Sherman, Vanity Fair
“In any normal presidential democracy, it wouldn’t be a close election yet. It is only close because of our strange electoral college. – Lee Drutman, New America think tank
“A key question moving forward is whether public opinion polls are irreparably halted or whether polls are simply halted in elections with Trump on the ballot.” – Nathan Gonzales internal elections.
“Biden POTUS with the GOP Senate is a recipe for horribly wicked politics next year.” – Matt glassman, Georgetown political scientist
“Democrats had hoped for a massive and unequivocal repudiation from Donald Trump for his mismanagement of the pandemic, his unleashed incompetence in the White House and his contempt for the rule of law. Instead, there was the sobering message that Trump’s support in key states like Florida was, in truth, greater than the polls had predicted. – Walter Shapiro of the New Republic.
Democratic Senate candidates were slightly behind Biden in several states, making it difficult for the party to regain control of the Senate.
Republicans overturned a seat: Tommy Tuberville defeated Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama. Gary Peters, the Democratic incumbent from Michigan, is locked in a tight race with his Republican challenger, John James; it will depend on the votes in circulation.
Democrats reversed two seats: John Hickenlooper beat Gardner in Colorado and Mark Kelly beat McSally in Arizona.
In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, was re-elected. Republicans also won races in Montana, South Carolina – where Lindsey Graham retained her seat – and Texas.
Several other races remain too close to name, most notably in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads Democratic candidate Sara Gideon. In a special Senate election in Georgia, incumbent President Kelly Loeffler is heading for a January runoff against Democrat Raphael Warnock.
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