Mr. Xi faces his own tests. China’s emissions continue to rise, even as those of the United States have declined significantly since 2005, although they do not match the reductions the United States had promised under the agreement. Paris. China’s emissions are on track to continue to grow until 2030; It is only after that that it is expected to decline, and quickly, according to a government-backed research group.
This is far from what is needed to get the world to meet the ultimate goal of the Paris climate agreement, which is to prevent average global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above pre-industrial levels by letting countries set their own emissions targets. every five years and by exerting diplomatic pressure among peers to be more ambitious.
An analysis by two research organizations, the Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics, to be published next week but reviewed by the New York Times, concludes that China is expected to peak in carbon emissions by 2025, five years earlier than the country promised. and phase out coal by 2040 to keep global temperatures close to the upper limits set in the Paris Agreement.
Much of the test of Xi’s climate ambitions rests on China’s next five-year plan, an economic roadmap for the country expected in the spring. It remains to be seen how this plan will manage China’s dependence on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, which provides most of the country’s electricity despite its expansion of solar and wind power.
China is the world’s largest consumer of coal. It represents the world’s largest fleet of new coal-fired power plants, according to research and defense group Urgewald. Four of the world’s largest builders of coal-fired power plants are Chinese.
China’s five-year plan will be released shortly after Biden takes office and publishes his own roadmap for rethinking the US economy in the age of climate change. This, according to several diplomats and analysts, could spark virtuous competition.
“There would be a race to the top of a low-carbon world,” said Byford Tsang, China specialist at E3G, a London-based research group.