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Wisconsin Democrats withdrew from the ground after the shock of 2016

MADISON, Wisconsin – If there’s one symbol of Wisconsin’s Democratic comeback after the shock of President Trump’s 2016 victory and nearly a decade of subjugation by the state’s Republican legislature, it’s Jill Karofsky.

Ms Karofsky stunned most of Wisconsin, and herself, when in April, she claimed an 11-point victory in a race for a seat on the state’s Supreme Court in an election, the Republicans across the state have prevented its Democratic governor from delaying due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“I didn’t see a way to win,” Judge Karofsky said during a six mile race on Monday. But when the ballot opened on April 7, she said, “I went for a run and I came home and looked at my phone and saw all these fine people voting in Milwaukee. And that’s when I started to have a silver lining.

For Wisconsin Democrats, hope has been lacking since 2010, when Republicans took control of state government and began systematically dismantling a progressive political infrastructure built over generations.

While Judge Karofsky’s race was officially non-partisan, her allies clarified the battle lines – the contest was a referendum on Mr. Trump and Republican governance in the state. And her victory, with its margin of surprise, provided a major psychological boost to a party beaten by the state’s dominant Republicans and still scared in 2016, when Hillary Clinton, who has never visited the state, lost Wisconsin by just 22,748 votes – a margin burnt in the memory of the state’s top Democrats.

It wasn’t until the closing hours of the 2020 campaign, when more than half of the state’s voters had voted ahead of the poll, that Democrats in Wisconsin allowed themselves to say aloud that they believed that former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would carry the state. by a healthy margin when the count was to be completed on Wednesday.

It’s an uptrend due to the combination of high turnout in Madison and Milwaukee, signs that they’ve won back some rural Democrats who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, and a feeling that since 2016 , they ultimately won more than they did. lost. Democrats also believe that a recent surge in statewide coronavirus cases has helped refocus voters on the president’s handling of the pandemic.

After Ms. Clinton’s loss in Wisconsin, Democrats started organizing from scratch. The Democratic National Committee and other liberal organizations in 2017 began making investments in the state the party neglected during the Obama years. In 2019, the Wisconsin Democratic Party elected its chairman Ben Wikler, a veteran organizer of Moveon.org who over the past 18 months has raised record amounts for the party, raising more than double the funds than his Republican counterparts.

It all unfolded in the ashes of the devastating competition of 2016, when Democrats were certain of a victory, but unwilling to do much to make it happen.

During that campaign, Mandela Barnes, who would be elected lieutenant governor two years later, asked people to pose with him in photos for Ms Clinton’s Instagram page. “People were like, ‘Ehhh, I don’t really know about this,” Mr. Barnes said. “I was like, ‘We’re friends!’ But also, damn.

But despite the new optimism, after so many meteoric defeats, voters feel that nothing should be taken for granted.

“For the past 10 years it’s like living with a boot around your neck,” said Andy Olsen, a policy advocate for an environmental organization who spent Tuesday morning reminding constituents of Madison’s Monona Terrace send an SMS to three friends to remind them to vote as well. . “We kept getting knocked over and trying to get up. People are reluctant to hope for too much. “

Even before the April judicial elections, there were already signs that the state’s fragile Trump coalition was crumbling. Republican margins in suburban Milwaukee plummeted in the 2018 midterm election, while Democrats grabbed some of the voters Mr. Trump won in 2016, especially in Fox Valley, a key region of the country. state battlefield.

Without Ms. Clinton as a foil, many of those voters began to judge Mr. Trump for himself and didn’t like the results.

“I voted for Trump four years ago by default,” said Ted Schartner, a Green Bay plasterer who voted for Mr. Biden last Wednesday. “I regretted it almost immediately. I didn’t like the way things were going.

As voters colluded with a Trump presidency, Democrats in Wisconsin found themselves breaking out of their collective nadir. Not only was this the first time since 1984 that a Republican won state electoral votes, Democrats were excluded from state government, found themselves in a deep minority in the state legislature, and made facing a State Supreme Court controlled by conservative judges.

By the time Mr. Trump won the White House, Wisconsinites had already grown accustomed to the constant partisan warfare that would define his administration.

“You go to a gathering of friends and it immediately turns into politics,” said Roben Haggart, who served as Minocqua Town Clerk for 22 years. “It always turns into an argument.”

Mr. Trump’s victory here has led to the saying that Wisconsin, with its large population of white working-class voters, has become a piece of the Republican Electoral College map, beyond the reach of Democratic candidates.

The state’s democratic infrastructure was in shambles, but gradually voters began to turn against Mr. Trump. In January 2018, a Democrat won a special election in a rural state Senate district Mr. Trump won by 17 points. That fall, Democrats mounted anger against Mr. Trump at a statewide election sweep, ousting Scott Walker, a two-term governor who had crippled the state’s public sector unions .

In June 2019, Wisconsin Democrats elected their state president, Mr. Wikler, who had moved his family to his childhood home in Madison. Mr. Wikler brought an organizational and fundraising weight the state had never seen. The Wisconsin Democratic Party has raised $ 58.7 million in the past two years, more than double the price of Republicans in the state.

“Trump’s victory, in many ways, has accelerated and advanced the necessary change within our party,” said Alex Lasry, senior official with the Milwaukee professional basketball franchise, weighing in on the seat of Ron Johnson, a Republican senator, in 2022. “Democrats have realized that we cannot stay on the sidelines of this off-year election.”

Representative Mark Pocan, a Democrat from Madison, said Mr. Biden’s campaign and Mr. Wikler’s leadership created a dramatically different political landscape than it was four years ago.

“The Biden campaign is 180 degrees different from what we had four years ago,” Pocan said. One important difference: Mr. Biden has visited Wisconsin three times since elementary school. “The candidate never came past primary four years ago, we didn’t have resources specifically for Wisconsin – or very few resources.”

The 2016 contest was marked by a drop in voter turnout among black voters in Milwaukee, who are now a key part of Mr. Biden’s hopes for a win in Wisconsin.

Reverend Greg Lewis, executive director of the Milwaukee Souls at Effort Polls, said the city’s black electorate had changed, in part thanks to Mr. Trump’s presidency. Since 2012, Mr Lewis said, the money that was lacking in 2016 is now going to community leaders for exit-voting efforts, just as black Milwaukeeans have become more committed to impeaching Mr Trump.

“These groups weren’t active four years ago because we didn’t have the funding or the resources to do the things we’re doing now,” Lewis said. “I just don’t think the Democratic Party has entered the community enough to energize itself and make sure people are ready to do what needs to be done.”

In October, Wisconsin’s coronavirus peak was among the worst in the country – and by far the worst of any state on the presidential battlefield. The president’s approval rating for the pandemic in Wisconsin has fallen from 51% in March to just 40%, according to a Marquette Law School poll.

“We have people who are supposed to run the country who just raised their hands and said there was nothing we can do about this pandemic – which is clearly not true,” said Kate Walton , Madison’s emergency room nurse who said she voted for Mr. Biden.

One after another, Biden voters across the state last week said their votes were driven primarily by a desire to oust Mr. Trump.

“I wouldn’t vote Trump for nothing, even if you paid me all the money he says he’s worth,” said Terri Konkol, a 58-year-old Milwaukeean who voted for Mr. Biden on Saturday from her chair rolling. She blamed the president for the spread of the virus in the state. “In all of our life, have we ever had to wear masks?”

Rose Goeb, 62, a Milwaukee preschool teacher, voted for Mr. Biden early on one of the first days she could.

About Mr. Trump, she said, “I decided a long time ago that this man did not have the character or the discipline to be president.”

And on Tuesday in Madison, among a line of voters waiting to vote when the polls opened at 7 a.m., was Helen Hawley, an artist inspired by Senator Bernie Sanders and a staunch desire to impeach Mr. Trump.

“It’s hard to be hopeful about anything right now,” said Ms. Hawley, 40. “But it’s better to have hope than not to. Hope is just something that I hold onto because it’s a good idea.

Reid J. Epstein reported from Madison, Wisconsin, and Astead W. Herndon from Milwaukee.

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Supreme Court examines how to decide whether teens should live without parole

In 2005, Mr. Jones was convicted of murder and sentenced to life without the possibility of parole, which was then the mandatory sentence under state law.

David M. Shapiro, an attorney for Mr. Jones, said his client “committed murder for the most immature reason possible: teenage infatuation.” In the years that followed, Mr Shapiro said, Mr Jones proved he was not “definitely incorrigible”.

“His grandmother, the victim’s wife, testified on his behalf,” Shapiro said. “A correctional officer talked about his rehabilitation, his amazing record in prison, how he is an amazing worker and tries to get along with everyone.

In 2012, in Miller v. Alabama, the Supreme Court ruled that automatic life sentences for juvenile offenders – like that imposed on Mr Jones – violated the Eighth Amendment. The decision criticized mandatory sentences, suggesting that only sentences in which judges could take into account the age of the accused were allowed.

In Montgomery v. Louisiana in 2016, the court made the Miller decision retroactive. In the process, he appeared to read the Miller decision to ban life without parole not only for defendants who received mandatory sentences, but also “for all but the rarest of juvenile offenders, those whose crimes reflect permanent incorrigibility.

Following the US Supreme Court’s decision in the Miller case, the Mississippi Supreme Court granted Jones a new sentencing hearing. The trial judge sentenced Mr. Jones to life without parole without saying in so many words that he was incorrigible.

On Tuesday, Shapiro said more was needed. “The established law,” he said, “recognizes the scientific, legal and moral truth that most children, even those who commit serious crimes, are capable of redemption.”

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The ancestral village of Kamala Harris in India offers prayers for her victory.

More than 8,000 miles from the White House, in a small Indian village surrounded by lush paddy fields, several dozen people flocked to a Hindu temple, wearing roses and scent jasmine chains, saying prayers for Kamala Harris.

This village, Thulasendrapuram, has a special relationship with Mrs. Harris. This is where her maternal grandfather was born over 100 years ago.

On Tuesday, Thulasendrapuram, which is about an eight-hour drive from the southern city of Chennai, gathered in a special ceremony at the main temple to wish Ms. Harris good luck.

Men wearing white dhotis, a sarong-like envelope, and women in luminous saris draped Hindu idols with flowers and sang hymns. As the election began to unfold in the United States, everyone was convinced that Joseph R. Biden and Ms. Harris would win.

“She is the village soil girl,” said Lalitha, a housewife, who could barely contain her excitement. “The position she has reached is incredible.”

Although Ms Harris has been more low-key about her Indian heritage than her experience as a black woman, her path to selection for the U.S. Vice President was also guided by the values ​​of her Indian-born mother and his extended Indian family.

In several major speeches, Ms Harris has gushed about her Indian grandfather, PV Gopalan, who inspired her with his stories of the struggle for Indian rights to gain independence from Britain.

Wearing Coke bottle glasses and often a necktie, Mr. Gopalan was a career civil servant who perhaps looked like many other top Indian gentlemen.

But he challenged the conservative stereotypes of his day, giving unwavering support to the women in his family, especially Ms Harris’ mother, Shyamala Gopalan. She came to America in the late 1950s young and alone, and made a career as a breast cancer researcher before dying of cancer in 2009.

As soon as the good luck ceremony ended on Tuesday, the villagers hosted a feast of idli and sambar, two South Indian dishes that the elders were eager to mark as Ms. Harris’ favorites.

The village is already preparing great things. A villager said the temple would certainly receive more donations if Ms. Harris wins. Another hoped the government would build a college.

“It is obvious that the villagers hope that once she wins this election, she will do us a favor,” said RR Kalidas Vandayar, an elder. “We hope the prayers are working.”

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How to follow election results

It’s not really hard to find election coverage – you can look in any direction and it will be there. But volume can be its own hurdle, making it difficult to get through the hustle and bustle and find the specific information you’re looking for.

Here’s a guide to covering The Times, no matter when, how, and how often you want to consume it.

There will be a results map on the New York Times homepage throughout the night, with states colored blue or red as they are called Joseph R. Biden Jr. or President Trump. You can click on any state for more details.

Unlike in past election days, the unnamed states do not be light blue or pink depending on who is leading. That’s because the huge partisan divide this year between mail-in ballots and in-person ballots risks skewing early results. A lead for either party in the initial tally can be very misleading, so states will not be colored until they are officially named.

And yes, the infamous needle will be back – but only for Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, as these are the only swing states that provide information granular enough for our experts to make informed projections of countless votes. .

The Times reporters blog live all day and night. It will be your one-stop-shop for minute-by-minute updates: race calls, field reports of swing statuses, news on voting issues or disruptions, and more.

Journalists will also publish frequent and brief analyzes of how the night unfolds.

A separate group of Times reporters will produce a live briefing from approximately 5 p.m. to 3 a.m. EST. (Come back here to 5 for a link.) This will give you an overview of what’s going on in a variety of areas: the presidential race, Senate races, House races, and the voting process itself.

This briefing won’t be as detailed or as quick as the live blogging, but it will be updated regularly throughout the night so that every time you check in you can be up to speed quickly on what’s going on. past. during your absence.

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When will we know the results of the elections?

Election day has finally arrived in the United States. So naturally many of you are wondering: when will the world know the outcome?

Unfortunately, no one knows for sure. We know, we know, you waited so long, and you’re just trying to decide whether to stay awake all night or go to bed hoping there’s a response in the morning. Or Thursday. Or Friday at the latest.

We can’t make this choice for you, but we can give you some tools to help you think through the night.

The first polling stations close on the East Coast at 7 p.m. local time, and the last do not close until after 12 p.m. Eastern time.

Here is a list of each state’s polling station closures, which usually means that if someone hasn’t voted or isn’t online to vote by then, their time is up.

States begin to communicate some of their results as soon as their polls close. But remember, they don’t report them all at the same time, so you may see biased results when scrolling through news channels or watching New York Times results pages.

This year especially, things are going to be a little different.

Maggie Astor, political reporter for The Times, explored the history of the counting of the ballots here, amid President Trump’s recent anhistorical claim that the election “should end on November 3, not weeks later. “.

In fact, Ms Astor wrote, no state ever releases final results on election night, and no state is legally expected to do so.

Traditionally, news agencies have projected winners on the basis of partial counts – more on that here.

This year, a big question arises as to whether enough states will have enough votes counted on election night for accurate projections. And depending on the state, we may not immediately know which candidate actually achieved the 270 electoral college votes for winning the presidency. (More information on the Electoral College here.)

Here’s everything you want to know about when the ballots will be counted in different states.

It is complicated. This week’s Daily podcast outlined three of the potential scenarios, though there are plenty more that could complicate election night and the days after.

“We’ve never had an election like this before,” Alex Burns, national political correspondent, told host Michael Barbaro. “It is possible that we have these expectations and they will be totally dashed by what really happens on election night. It is possible that the counting is much faster, it is possible that it is much slower. “

These three scenarios described by Mr. Burns and Mr. Barbaro:

  • Joseph R. Biden Jr. clinches a significant victory in one of the fastest growing East Coast states. If Mr. Biden wins Florida, for example, it’s a sign that Mr. Trump’s path to victory may be difficult. “There aren’t a lot of Republicans who believe the president can win this race without Florida,” Burns said.

  • President Trump is holding on in all of those first great East Coast states. This signals a close race, which means all eyes are on the Midwest.

  • The third is what Mr. Burns calls the “It’s a giant mess and we just don’t know anything” scenario. He describes a lingering uncertainty: “We are in Florida 2000 in several states at once.” In that case, final appeals in several key states would be based on the counting of postal ballots, which could take days.

You probably have some time to kill right now, so why not go listen to the episode? Or consult the electoral distractor.

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California Election Day

But he said it was especially exciting to vote at the stadium with his father and grandfather, the latter wearing a Dodgers shirt, mask and hat. He had played on the field as a high school student and celebrated the World Series victory.

“Since I was born, I’ve been a huge fan of the Dodgers,” he said.

For 19-year-old Helena Herrera, who came to vote for the first time at the stadium with her mother and little sister, voting for her future was an imperative. The idea that young people do not participate in elections, as they always have, was a motivating factor.

“Things are going to start to affect us,” she said.

Ms Herrera said she had not followed the state’s voting proposals closely – although she did vote on some based on other supporters. The most pressing issue for her was the president’s vote, which she said would allow the country to “return to the humanity we once knew.”

The pandemic had also affected her and her family. Ms. Herrera started college at San Jose State University, but with most in-person classes canceled, she opted to go to community college instead.

Her mother, Bebe Herrera, 46, said she also voted for Joseph R. Biden Jr., although he was not her first choice for the Democratic nomination. She said she appreciated the stability she believed a Biden administration would bring.

More importantly, she said, she wanted to encourage her children to get involved.

“I wanted her to feel like she was exercising her voice,” she said, nodding at her daughter. “If she doesn’t come out and change it, it won’t change.”

The fact that the family voted at Dodger Stadium made the experience more meaningful.

[Read about how millions of Californians have voted already, fueling record turnout.]

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An Ohio mill has lost its identity. Can youth sports restore it?

HAMILTON, Ohio – Hamilton has long been a city in search of identity.

In its heyday, its industries produced paper and housed a company that manufactured safes capable of withstanding a nuclear explosion. But as the demand for paper and bomb-proof safes declined, these industries took Hamilton with them. What was left of this city of 70,000 people along the Great Miami River was then destroyed by the Great Recession ten years ago.

Over the years, rulers have attempted to reinvent the city, sometimes in a way that brought more ludicrous than redemption.

Hamilton gained notoriety in the 1980s when the city officially added an exclamation mark after its name (an addition quickly rejected by cartographer Rand McNally). Later, the city called itself the City of Sculpture, and it still has a much-loved sculpture collection and award-winning sculpture park. Still, the artistic nickname couldn’t pierce the image of the city’s rust belt.

The city’s manufacturing ghosts continued to haunt her in the form of abandoned factories and smokestacks pointing like frozen fingers in the sky. Now one of those closed factories is about to be reused, and residents doubt even the pandemic could derail Hamilton’s transformation, this time into a sports town.

City manager Joshua A. Smith arrived in 2010 from Howard, Wisconsin, a suburb of Green Bay, another struggling Rust Belt town.

“The community was lacking any kind of energy,” said Mr. Smith, now 47. “It was almost as if the city had abandoned itself.”

Perhaps no facility exemplifies the city’s fortunes better than the empty Champion Paper factory, which closed in 2012. Some potential buyers have started bidding (an out-of-town company wanted to buy it for cold storage), but Mr. Smith saw the promise and the city bought the Champion complex along with its 40 acres of waterfront land for $ 400,000.

The 1.3 million square foot site is on its way to becoming what is billed as the largest indoor sports complex in North America: the Spooky Nook Sports Champion Mill.

Spooky Nook is an indoor sports company based in Manheim, Pa., Where its 700,000 square foot resort attracts more than one million visitors annually, bringing in more than $ 50 million to the local economy, according to Tourism Economics. , an analysis firm trip.

Hamilton, through tax breaks and infrastructure improvements, has provided $ 20 million in funding for the $ 170 million Champion Mill complex in the hopes that it will receive the same draw when it opens. by the end of 2021. To achieve this, development will go beyond sports to include a fitness center, restaurants, residences and shops. The city estimates that it will create 380 permanent jobs.

Switching to sports is a natural fit, said Mayor Pat Moeller, who added that he envisions legions of tourists visiting Hamilton’s restaurants, bars and shops.

“It will transform us,” he said.

Across the country, youth sports have become big business, and cities often covet the facilities as a way to boost local development and attract residents from the outside.

The industry generates $ 19 billion in revenue nationwide, up from around $ 9 billion several years ago, said Norm Gill, managing partner of Pinnacle Indoor Sports, an advisory service that helped build 50 complexes across the country but is not involved in the Spooky Nook Project. .

“Sport tourism is on steroids,” said Gill, who estimated that each visitor could spend $ 110 to $ 180 per day on food, accommodation and tickets.

More than $ 550 million has been spent to develop complexes to accommodate youth sports in the past three years, according to Sports Business Journal, a trade publication. And there are 1,250 indoor soccer facilities across the country, according to the US Indoor Sports Association, a commercial organization. They can range from under 25,000 square feet to the size of Champion Mill, but only the larger ones attract major tournaments.

The SportsPlex in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, for example, opened in May with great fanfare among residents. By providing six regulation basketball courts, two indoor soccer fields, 12 volleyball courts and other equipment, organizers hope to attract sports and tournament activities to a five-state region.

“These sports complexes are a symptom or the result of the professionalization of sports for young people that has taken place over the past 40 years,” said Victor A. Matheson, professor of sports economics at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass Elite traveling teams, increasingly expensive equipment and more rigorous training schedules are part of the experience of today’s players.

The pandemic has put the brakes on many industries, and youth sport is no different, but Gill believes by the time the Spooky Nook Sports Champion Mill opens, the demand will be there. The industry is most likely oversaturated and headed for reduction, he said, but the mixed-use component of the Hamilton plant could give it some durability.

Industry experts agree that the key is to attract travelers who will circulate their dollars in the host city. Without this element, success can be fleeting.

Large youth sports complexes are typically 30,000 to 100,000 square feet, and many are privately run. Those owned by municipalities, like the SportsPlex in Cape Girardeau, are often built as a catalyst for development.

“These facilities cause losses – cities don’t make money with them,” said Gill. “The real goal is to bring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the local economy.”

Spooky Nook Sports predicts one million visitors to Hamilton in its first year, a milestone its Manheim, near Lancaster, Pa. Facility did not reach until its third year.

But the challenge for Hamilton and other cities is the limited number of kids and parents willing to spend many weekends of the year competing in these tournaments.

“You have to have gigantic tournaments to justify this size,” said Professor Matheson. “A city of 70,000 people cannot generate activity to conserve 700,000 square feet of indoor sports space. You can pull baskets down your driveway for free. “

To that end, Hamilton is attempting to attract a critical mass of recreation seekers to complement Spooky Nook. The Pinball Garage recently opened nearby, with over 30 gaming machines, and Mr Smith, the city manager, has stipulated that Spooky Nook is occupying the space for restaurants and other amenities with local operators.

Spooky Nook founder Sam Beiler isn’t concerned about the saturation of the market. Thirty-five weekends in 2022 are already set aside for youth sports tournaments at Champion Mill.

“We think our model, which focuses on local traffic and corporate events throughout the week and youth sports tournaments on the weekends, is a great model,” he said. in an email.

Local businesses are also hanging their fortunes on Spooky Nook. Hamilton straddles the Great Miami River, and until a few years ago the west side was pockmarked with empty storefronts. But once rumors of the arrival of Spooky Nook started to circulate, boutiques, art stores, and restaurants began to take hold.

Mike Hoskins, owner of Petals & Wicks, a flower and candle shop, said one of the things that drew him and his wife to their current location four years ago was the expectation of an increase in traffic from the sports complex. They struggled during the pandemic lockdown, but regained a foothold and are banking on Spooky Nook changing the city, he said.

The same goes for Paula Hollstegge, co-owner of Hip Boutique, where shelves are full of colorful clothing and accessories, less than a mile from the sports complex.

“We’re super excited about Spooky Nook,” Ms. Hollstegge said. “We hope that after a day of sports women will want to leave the guys behind and go shopping.”

The city’s fortunes may well depend on it.

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It is election day. Nothing is right here.

How long will it take for this electoral hurricane to pass? We can only wait and see. It’s election day, and here is your political advice sheet. register here to get On Politics delivered to your inbox every day of the week.

Granville Vitamvas, 4, helped his mother, Golda Vitamvas, vote on Monday in Omaha.


Our correspondents are scattered across the country to cover the action at the polls today and the candidates’ last-minute campaign comes to a halt. Then, as the polls begin to close in the Battlefield States as early as 7 p.m. EST tonight, you can follow along with us at nytimes.com because our team brings you full results and live analysis.

To see when polls end across the country, you can use this handy, state-by-state guide that also tells you the likelihood that we have a winner called tonight in each state.

Georgia will be one of the first states to wrap things up, with voting officially ending at 7 p.m. statewide – although long lines have been known to keep some places open late, particularly in the cities. democratic areas. It’s safe to assume that you’ll have to wait some time for all the votes to be counted in Georgia, where both Senate seats are open this year and the presidential race is neck and neck. Local officials said they expected calls the next day.

North Carolina will follow closely behind, closing its last polling stations at 7:30 a.m. Local officials said they expected 98% of all ballots to be counted by the end of the night.

Across the Sun Belt in the hotly contested Arizona state, polls won’t close until 9 p.m. EST. But given its long history of unapologetic postal voting and its relative lack of legal drama related to voting this year, there’s a good chance we have a winner there tonight.

As the results come in, you’ll probably find it hard to look away from The Upshot’s hypnotic forecasting “needles”. We promise they’re here to educate you – not to unravel your last nerve. Due to the complications of voting amid the coronavirus pandemic and how it affected voting reports, we are able to provide needles to track the likelihood of a Trump and Biden victory in just three states. swing: Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Here you can read about the intricate job of getting the hands ready for prime time and why they will prove to be informative as the night progresses.


Listen to the very first live broadcast of “The Daily” on Election Day! Michael barbaro, the host of the show, and Carolyn Ryan, Times deputy editor, will call correspondents and voters across the country to make sense of a historic day.

Over the course of the four-hour show, you can expect to hear from dozens of Times reporters, including Alexander Burns, Maggie Haberman, Astead W. Herndon and Jennifer Medina. Our correspondents will be on the ground in key battlefield states, speaking to voters as they go to the polls. Our tech journalists will keep an eye out for social media and potential misinformation, while our survey experts will break down the latest information on the state of the race.

Tune in today from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. EST, only at nytimes.com/thedaily.

On Politics is also available as a newsletter. register here to have it delivered to your inbox.

Do you think we are missing something? Do you want to see more? We would love to hear from you. Write to us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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How to watch tonight

They will announce not only the provenance of the ballots, but also the manner in which these ballots were cast. This distinction is crucial, because mail-in voting will look Democratically in most states, while in-person voting will look Republican. But no one knows exactly how big the bias will be – so it will be extremely difficult to analyze the vote tally that does not distinguish between in-person and mail ballots.

Because Florida, Georgia and North Carolina will all make the distinction, these are the only three states for which The Times is creating versions of its Election Night Hand this year. The hands will show the percentage of chances of victory for Trump or Biden in each state, as it changes tonight, based on the ballots counted.

There will be no national needle this year. “The limits of the data available make it simply too risky to be responsible”, Nate Cohn of The Times tweeted.

Bottom line: While Biden looks set to lose Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s no longer a big favorite to win. This would suggest that the polls had underestimated Trump’s support. In the FiveThirtyEight simulations, Biden has about a 50% chance of winning if he loses the three Southeast swing states. He would then probably need to win at least Pennsylvania or Arizona.

The Senate. North Carolina will be important for a second reason: it is home to one of the Senate races most likely to determine Senate control. If Democrat Cal Cunningham defeats incumbent Republican President Thom Tillis, it will mean Democrats are on track to hold at least 50 Senate seats in January.

A second major Senate race takes place in Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m. Maine’s ranked choice voting system means official results may not be counted for several days. But if Democratic challenger Sara Gideon wins more than 47% of the vote in the first round, she’ll be in good shape to beat the Republican incumbent Susan Collins, Colby College’s Dan Shea told us.

In Arizona and Colorado, where polls close at 9 p.m., Democratic challengers are favored. Winning those four seats – and the vice presidency, which severed ties with the Senate – will likely be enough to give Democrats control of the Senate. They also have a decent chance of winning in South Carolina (where the polls close at 7 p.m.), Iowa (10 p.m.), Montana (10 p.m.), and Georgia, where one or both races may end. qualify for the January playoffs.

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Faced with election day anxiety? Consider removing some apps and taking a walk.

Owen Keehnen, writer and historian in Chicago, falls asleep because of the election. About five times a week for the past few months, he has woken up around 3 a.m. in a panic, he said.

“As the election approaches, I feel tremendous anxiety,” said Mr. Keehnen, 60. “So much seems to depend on the election when it comes to rights down the line and everything. It really took a toll on my sleep.

Mr Keehnen is not alone in dealing with the stress of this electoral cycle, a reality only amplified by the coronavirus pandemic.

About two-thirds of Americans in 2017 said their worry about the country’s future was a major source of their stress over money and work, according to a report released that year by the American Psychological Association titled “Stress in America: The State of Our Nation.”

The survey found that a majority of people from both political parties were stressed by what she described as the “current social divide,” but those numbers were higher for Democrats at 73%, compared to Republicans at 56%. and the independents at 59%, he said. .

Allison Eden, associate professor of communications at Michigan State University, suggested a series of steps to alleviate the stress and anxiety the day can bring, including removing social media apps like Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. from your phone. Making them a little more difficult can help.

“You would have to access it through a website or device not readily available,” she said of the apps. “But if you remove the logo from your phone, you’re less likely to click on it.” Eliminating notifications can also help alleviate stress, she said.